As a volunteer leader within the Texas real estate profession, I have served for many years on the Board of Directors for our state association - Texas REALTORS. Many of those board meetings included a detailed report on our past, and a robust future projection for the real estate market presented by the Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
This post will capture some data from their 2026 projections, as well as a glimpse into the past 12 months of Texas real estate.
Recap as of December 2025
Texas has 8 million single family detached units and another 300,000 attached units (total of 3.8M single family homes. 2025 had a weak start, and before the year end final numbers are finalized, the projection is to close about 340,000 units. Easing mortgage rates helped with buyer affordability, and persistent inventory pressure created buyer-friendly conditions in many parts of the state. Home prices continue to show signs of broad weakening across the state. Home prices trends pointed to a year-ending $330,000 median sales price. Single-family rents softened and are expected to be $2,100 per month at year end.
With that in mind, here is where the experts think we are headed in the 2026 Texas real estate market.
- Anticipate a 1% increase in housing starts with single-family permits landing around 155,000 in 2026.
- Price reductions to offset inventory growth, combined with falling interest rates could contribute to a 2.5% increase in sales (of new and existing homes).
- Prices to remain flat or see a slight increase of approximately 1.3% which projects the median price to land at $334k.
- Rental rates to increase slightly and land around $2,200.
With the current outlook showing modest signs of growth, it appears that the 2026 real estate market may look much like the 2024 and 2025 markets across Texas. As real estate is generally cyclical and some experts say those cycles can shift every 4-5 years on the low end, or up to 10-15 years on the high end. If that's true, and we are headed into year 3 of this buyer-friendly market in Texas. If you are planning to purchase a home, NOW is a great time to make a move. It seems that we have a few more years of slow growth before the next shift into a more seller-friendly market.
To view their entire report from the Real Estate Research Center, visit https://trerc.tamu.edu/article/2026-texas-real-estate-forecast/
If you want more info like this about the housing market in Texas (or specific details about North Texas communities like Plano, McKinney, Dallas, Rockwall) then follow us on social media or check out our Youtube channel.